How Hezbollah’s ‘limited war’ calculation failed spectacularly against Israel

Before his death, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah had formulated a plan on how the group would combat Israel. He had calculated a delicate balance – supporting Hamas in its struggle against Israel while avoiding a full-blown war that could engulf Lebanon. “Some in Lebanon say that we are taking a risk. But this risk is part of a beneficial, correct calculation.” he had asserted in a video from a secret location, confidence lacing his voice.
But as the days turned into weeks following Hamas’s surprise assault on Israel in October last year, Nasrallah’s calculation began to unravel. Israel, fueled by domestic pressures and a fierce desire to reclaim its northern border, unleashed a torrent of targeted attacks on Hezbollah. Each airstrike not only dismantled infrastructure but shattered the myth of invulnerability that Hezbollah had cultivated.
Rumors swirled of Israeli intelligence’s deep infiltration into Hezbollah’s ranks, rendering the group vulnerable. As Nasrallah watched the chaos unfold, he felt the weight of every decision he had made. To create a leadership vacuum within Hezbollah, Israel kept targeting senior members within the terror group.
The last two weeks have highlighted how Nasrallah’s calculations failed, as Israel carried out a series of precise strikes inside Lebanon. The campaign has already incapacitated 1,500 Hezbollah fighters with exploding pagers and walkie-talkies and resulted in the death of several top leaders.
Nasrallah had avoided public appearances since a previous 2006 war. He had long been vigilant, his movements were restricted and the circle of people he saw was very small, according to a source familiar with Nasrallah’s security arrangements. The assassination suggested his group had been infiltrated by informants for Israel, reports Reuters.
Including Nasrallah, Israel’s military says it has killed eight of Hezbollah’s nine most senior military commanders this year, mostly in the past week. These commanders led units ranging from the rocket division to the elite Radwan force.
But the group, whose name means Party of God, is expected to fight on: by US and Israeli estimates it had some 40,000 fighters ahead of the current escalation, along with large weapons stockpiles and an extensive tunnel network near Israel’s border.